"Will Climate Change Lead to More Conflict?"

Halvard Buhaug, Senior Researcher, Centre for the Study of Civil War, The
International Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO)

Tuesday, October 28, 1-2pm

Seismology Seminar Room, 2nd Floor

For background and publications see Halvard's web page:
http://www.prio.no/CSCW/People/Person/?oid=66168

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=81141

NAIROBI, 27 October 2008 (IRIN) - More than half of the families returning to Southern Sudan are headed by single women while 59 percent of all returnees are aged 5 to 17, a new report said.

"Spontaneous return movements show a tendency for women to return without [the] male head of household or males to leave women with the children in the place of return to either return back to the place of displacement or to a secondary place of displacement," the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a 24 October report.

This situation, the IOM noted, had resulted from lack or limited access to basic services in the villages of final destination, as well as for employment and educational reasons.

"Female headed households represent 60 percent of the total tracked households in Southern Sudan," the IOM tracking of spontaneous returns report noted.

Some 1.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have returned to the south since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005.

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The tracking programme gathers detailed information on numbers, demographics (sex, age) and special needs or vulnerabilities of the returnees.

According to the IOM, most returnees went to Northern Bahr el Ghazal and Southern Kordofan - 401,763 and 298,098 persons respectively. The lowest numbers were in Eastern Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal States - 53,395 and 62,304 returnees, respectively.

The main return route, the IOM report noted, was from Northern to Southern Sudan, but South to South movements are also monitored.

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=81136

NAIROBI, 27 October 2008 (IRIN) - A devastating conflict could erupt in the central Sudanese state of southern Kordofan unless long-standing grievances are urgently addressed, a think-tank has warned.

"The Khartoum government must rapidly address the worsening situation or face the prospect of a devastating new conflict," Fouad Hikmat, Horn of Africa project director the International Crisis Group (ICG), said.

Southern Kordofan lies in the critical border area between the North and South and is occupied by Arab (mainly Misseriya and Hawazma) and African (mainly Nuba) groups that are deeply polarised along political and ethnic lines.

"There is animosity over resources, representation and interests," Hikmat said. "Local communities are frustrated with the NCP [National Congress Party] and the SPLM [Sudan People's Liberation Movement] government." He was speaking at the launch of a report, Sudan's Southern Kordofan Problem: The Next Darfur?

The NCP and the SPLM make up the Government of National Unity, formed after the 2005 signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). But the Nuba have no representation at the SPLM in Juba, the capital of Southern Sudan.

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The predominantly pastoralist Misseriya also feel their livelihoods are under threat, according to Hikmat.

During the war, militias comprising local Arab pastoralists fought for the government and were rewarded with arms, land and support for their livestock. "This support has reduced after the war," he said.

The region suffers a lack of basic services, acute underdevelopment, economic marginalisation and rampant poverty. Development projects have also stalled.

Hundreds of people have died in disputes over land and grazing rights - a situation exacerbated by the thousands of returnees. A land commission, proposed by the CPA, to investigate the problem of land ownership has still not been established.

http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?ReportID=81090

HARARE, 23 October 2008 (IRIN) - The distribution of agricultural inputs such as maize seed and fertiliser for the 2008/09 season has become the domain of Zimbabwe's military and President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party.

As the first rains fell in October, farmers flocked to traditional input retailers, only to be told that the government, through the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, had bought all the seed from producers and had centralised the distribution of agricultural inputs.

"We received an instruction that the government had purchased all the seed and would be responsible for distribution to the farmers," an official who declined to be identified told IRIN.

"I have been in this business for more than 20 years and I know the government does not have the capacity to distribute seed. The best method is the traditional way of allowing retailers to sell to farmers."

The absence of maize seed came as the Southern Africa Region Climate Outlook Forum, based in neighbouring South Africa, predicted that Zimbabwe would record normal rainfall between October and December, a crucial stage in the growth of the country's staple food.

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"Known or suspected Movement for Democratic Change [MDC] supporters did not receive any maize seed or fertiliser from the soldiers, who are responsible for distribution," he said.

MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa told IRIN the military should not be involved in the distribution of agricultural inputs, as they did not have the capacity, and there was a possibility that they would be biased in favour of ZANU-PF supporters.