Global 0.5-Degree Grids of Yield Decline Projection (RCP8.5 2050s) for Rainfed Crops, v1

In a world characterized by rising temperatures, droughts, variations in precipitation, and other extreme climate events, ensuring food security is a matter of health, public security and social justice. Here we projected rainfed yield decline of the “Big Four Crops” – maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Globally, these crops rank as the highest produced and consumed crops, and therefore are indicators of global food security. The projected change in the rainfed yield for each crop is assessed for this analysis; grid cells with yield declines are included in this dataset. 1980-2005 was chosen for the baseline as this time period aligns with publicly available climate data and captures recent climate trends. The 2050s (i.e. 2041-2070) time slice was chosen due to stakeholder interest in projected climate change impacts that could be associated with year 2050.

This database was developed along with a technical report: The Future We Don’t Want prepared for the C40 Cities Group by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) in 2018.

Yield change projections are developed with a 6 GGCM (PEGASUS, pDSSAT, GEPIC, LPJ-GUESS, EPIC, LPJmL) / 4 GCM multi-model mean utilizing four global climate models (IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M); Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) 2005 v2.0 crop area estimates are utilized. The baseline period utilized is 1980-2005 while the future period projected is 2041-2070. Grid cells with less than 10 hectares (ha) of crop production are not included in this analysis; cells with less than 2 tons/ha in the baseline are also masked to avoid large percent yield changes. All grid cells are 0.5 by 0.5 degrees. The data unit is percentage change.

These model projections are facilitated by the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI; https://agmip.org/ag-grid-2/), an effort within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP); we used multiple global climate models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), downscaled and bias-adjusted and in coordination with the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), and multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs), as part of the GGCMI/ISIMIP Fast Track project. AgMIP is a major international collaborative effort to improve the state of agricultural simulation and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector at global and regional scales.

Braneon, C., C. Rosenzweig, A. Ruane, and M. Phillips. 2021. Global 0.5-Degree Grids of Yield Decline Projection (RCP8.5 2050s) for Rainfed Crops, v1 (Preliminary Release). Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/global-grid-yield-decline-2050-v1/. Accessed DAY MONTH YEAR.

This is a preliminary open data release, pending peer review of the data and associated journal articles. Following the peer review process, data curation will be completed by the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) and the data will be disseminated through the SEDAC catalog.